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iran and it's much more expensive not to go through iran. if we want to apply the sanctions it's going to be problematic. politics come in the way of economics completely in this region. just an example about the surplus electricity that tajikistan wants to sell to afghanistan when it has its own serious problems on electricity almost at war with uzbekistan. we do have political problems in the region that cannot be solved through economics can be exaspirating. the countries prefer bilateral than multilateral and regional because of the competition with each other and because of the gains thaeltd get. they're unsure how much the taliban if they come to power would hold on to their promises on economic contracts. there has no good record of the taliban having held -- having had a good economic strategy before. and finally, chinese are giving a lot of guarantees on money. russians are giving guarantees on security. central asians want guarantees. this is it the message of my talk. they want guarantees. this is the word. iranians want respect,
iran and it's much more expensive not to go through iran. if we want to apply the sanctions it's going to be problematic. politics come in the way of economics completely in this region. just an example about the surplus electricity that tajikistan wants to sell to afghanistan when it has its own serious problems on electricity almost at war with uzbekistan. we do have political problems in the region that cannot be solved through economics can be exaspirating. the countries prefer bilateral...
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iran, one of the concerns of a military action would be what iran could do in response militarily. i think it's important to point out iran doesn't have a powerful conventional military. that's not really a response option. it has been investing in a symmetric capabilities. it has ties to terrorist groups and has ballistic missiles and could cause a problem in the persian gulf. those would be the options. i do think in the event of a strike if they think the regime is at risk that they have nothing left to lose, that they koes exercise some of these more extreme retaliatory options including possibly trying to close the strait of hormuz. it's important if we decide to use military force we are very clooer in our public statements and private messaging and our targeting we're only interested in a limited strike against the key nuclear facilities, not after coming after the regime. i think iran can get that message. we have a number of ways of communicating with them. and i think that we can also play on iran's fierce. put yourself in the shoes of the supreme leader. your primary goa
iran, one of the concerns of a military action would be what iran could do in response militarily. i think it's important to point out iran doesn't have a powerful conventional military. that's not really a response option. it has been investing in a symmetric capabilities. it has ties to terrorist groups and has ballistic missiles and could cause a problem in the persian gulf. those would be the options. i do think in the event of a strike if they think the regime is at risk that they have...
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/iran or western iran diplomacies is that there are really good metaphors. closing windows, clocks running at different speeds. so, again, i want to reiterate, i favor diplomacy. i favor probably an unrealistically ambitious diplomatic approach. the very fact that that approach is unrealistic causes me to doubt whether or not we will get to where we want to go. as i mentioned, ali covered quite well some of the obstacles to a diplomatic resolution to the problem. i want to focus on u.s. politics and impediments and suggest where we might go from here to prove me wrong. so, in terms of american domestic politics, the general idea i've been trying to get out into the public is that what might work can't happen and what might happen can't work. and i think that's a fairly glum assessment. i hope that i'm wrong about it, but that's what i believe at this point. as barbara mentioned, the congress' attitude has been let's add more pressure on top of the existing pressure and promise not to put any more pressure if concessions are made. in fact, it's even stopped t
/iran or western iran diplomacies is that there are really good metaphors. closing windows, clocks running at different speeds. so, again, i want to reiterate, i favor diplomacy. i favor probably an unrealistically ambitious diplomatic approach. the very fact that that approach is unrealistic causes me to doubt whether or not we will get to where we want to go. as i mentioned, ali covered quite well some of the obstacles to a diplomatic resolution to the problem. i want to focus on u.s....
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or taking military iran. nuclear iran would pose a grave threat to the peace and security and would lead to further proliferation in the region as other countries acquire weapons in response. it would he'd lead to further proliferation itself as iran would transfer of the technology to other countries. and nuclear armed iran would be more aggressive. right now iran restrains its foreign policy because it fears major retaliation from israel or the united states. with weapons, it would feel emboldened to push harder and engaging in more coesive diplomacy in the region. we could see an even more crisis prone middle east and with a nuclear armed iran and israel, other nuclear armed states in the region, any one of those crisis coz result in nuclear exchange. given israel's small size, it could mean the end of a state of israel. once iran has missiles capable of reaching the united states, one of these crises could result you the in a nuclear exchange on u.s. soil. so a nuclear armed iran poses a grave threat. pre
or taking military iran. nuclear iran would pose a grave threat to the peace and security and would lead to further proliferation in the region as other countries acquire weapons in response. it would he'd lead to further proliferation itself as iran would transfer of the technology to other countries. and nuclear armed iran would be more aggressive. right now iran restrains its foreign policy because it fears major retaliation from israel or the united states. with weapons, it would feel...
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si on iran. it is a judgment by this administration and the previous few administrations that an iranian nuclear weapon is a significant threat to u.s. rvitl national interests in a vital region. israel factors in making certain decisions but not in the ultimate course. i also think there's been some in evidence the last couple months that this administration isn't prisoner to israeli desires on this. how do i know that? because if this administration had been prisoner to those desires, obama would have laid out much clearer red lines than he did at the apac conference. we would have green lit an israeli attack on iran already instead of basically telling them not to do it and we think it's a bad idea. and we would have -- or we would have committed to doing it ourselves. now, i mean, this is a viable option. how do i know? because half the republican candidates running for president have suggested exactly, you know, green lighting an israeli attack or doing it jointly or doing it ourselves, clai
si on iran. it is a judgment by this administration and the previous few administrations that an iranian nuclear weapon is a significant threat to u.s. rvitl national interests in a vital region. israel factors in making certain decisions but not in the ultimate course. i also think there's been some in evidence the last couple months that this administration isn't prisoner to israeli desires on this. how do i know that? because if this administration had been prisoner to those desires, obama...
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ali raises publications include coping with a nuke rising iran, israel and iran, the next supreme leader, you can ses in the republic of iran, saudi relations since the fall of saddam and many others. his commentaries have appeared in foreign policy.com, global security.org, international herald tribune, "new york times" and others and he is a frequent guest on television and radio. and the final speaker is my friend and colleague justin logan, the director of foreign policy studies here at cato. he's an expert on u.s. grand strategy, international releases theory and american important policy. his current research focuses on the shifting balance of power in asia and the formation of u.s. grand strategy under unipolarity. he's authored numerous policy studies and articles including on "uss-china policy, u.s.-russian policy, and policy approaches towards a nuclear iran. his articles have appeared in many policy journals including foreign policy and the national interest, orbis, foreign service journal and others and he also has appeared on many television and radio networks. with that i w
ali raises publications include coping with a nuke rising iran, israel and iran, the next supreme leader, you can ses in the republic of iran, saudi relations since the fall of saddam and many others. his commentaries have appeared in foreign policy.com, global security.org, international herald tribune, "new york times" and others and he is a frequent guest on television and radio. and the final speaker is my friend and colleague justin logan, the director of foreign policy studies...
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i mean that's not really a valid argument he's cantered her iran or iran is iran insult and the united states oh and in fact you can because iran is an independent sovereign country in fact contrary to the claim made earlier that the international community is united on iran it is not a nonaligned movement which consists of three sets of the country of the world supporting iran but in the west the nonaligned movement in other words the majority of the world tonight are not considered as the international community the international community as well as our western countries they represent us and they're the ones who make the decisions. in their eyes the riots are not going to accept that the iranians are working with the frame within the framework of the of international law and they will continue to do so those countries that are not pursue a working within the framework of international law are those countries that are threatening iran with a military attack which is barbaric those countries which have placed an embargo on the iranian central bank in order to prevent iran from even i
i mean that's not really a valid argument he's cantered her iran or iran is iran insult and the united states oh and in fact you can because iran is an independent sovereign country in fact contrary to the claim made earlier that the international community is united on iran it is not a nonaligned movement which consists of three sets of the country of the world supporting iran but in the west the nonaligned movement in other words the majority of the world tonight are not considered as the...
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this is iran's way of saying that, if the united states hurts iran's economy, iran can also hurt the u.s. economy. and, of course, it's not on the same scale. iran's economy is being hurt much more, but there are things iran can do to retaliate and that's why military option, it's not really a solution, because a potential conflict in the middle east with iran would be very messy, and could take years to come to an end, basically. >> do you want to add anything to that? >> i think particularly in the assad regime in syria goes down ir iraq and afghanistan will become major battlegrounds. iraq is not in a good state. nobody talks about it, but there are still bombs going off and so on and iraq is, and afghanistan to play because of their long borders. so i don't -- this is a reason against the military option, and something that we should be aware of as we go forward. >> all right. very good. please join me in thanking our panelists on the first panel. >>> president obama signs the stock act today. that's the bill to stop members of congress and their staff from insider trading using
this is iran's way of saying that, if the united states hurts iran's economy, iran can also hurt the u.s. economy. and, of course, it's not on the same scale. iran's economy is being hurt much more, but there are things iran can do to retaliate and that's why military option, it's not really a solution, because a potential conflict in the middle east with iran would be very messy, and could take years to come to an end, basically. >> do you want to add anything to that? >> i think...
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policy iran's isolation or the problem with iran trumps the need to get iran to work positively in afghanistan? and i'll leave it at that. so, i think we'll get brief answers and then we'll open it up. >> sure. i think you're very right. this is what pakistani policymakers essentially are obsessed with or look at very seriously. they also have the whole civil war scenarios in afghanistan in front of them. but a couple of points. one is we must remember that pakistan's elitist orientation has always been south south asian, india -- i mean, whatever they do, they look towards india and oppose it or whatever. and there are big problems, of course, with india. they had also -- and also is -- i mean affected how it makes policies towards afghanistan because there was no real expertise on afghanistan. i look at things that have been written about afghanistan today and pakistan. a lot of the big effects are wrong. i mean, the composition of the society, one's life and that kind of stuff. the thing -- the real answer to your question is that in the 1990s there was a reasonable conflict of information
policy iran's isolation or the problem with iran trumps the need to get iran to work positively in afghanistan? and i'll leave it at that. so, i think we'll get brief answers and then we'll open it up. >> sure. i think you're very right. this is what pakistani policymakers essentially are obsessed with or look at very seriously. they also have the whole civil war scenarios in afghanistan in front of them. but a couple of points. one is we must remember that pakistan's elitist orientation...
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yeah i think many distinctions were lost on iran i think iran simply did not understand the american people you know in a sense she sort of had to have a connection with the way americans thought but i think in a deeper sense if you look at her philosophy she simply did not understand the american people she didn't understand american values and what you see her in in all of her books you see her. american values one after another in the judeo christian values in particular so what would america look like if iran was running the show or if one of her accolades or devotes he's like orion's ranger. well we can see you you would see basically a dismantlement of government you'd see every aspect of government which benefits people would just go away all that would have left would be the army you'd have a police force and you'd have the courts and that was basically if i was her vision of america were basically the united states would be run by corporations and since they'd have no barriers to merge to merger or it may be no way to trust barriers they would have america would be ruled by
yeah i think many distinctions were lost on iran i think iran simply did not understand the american people you know in a sense she sort of had to have a connection with the way americans thought but i think in a deeper sense if you look at her philosophy she simply did not understand the american people she didn't understand american values and what you see her in in all of her books you see her. american values one after another in the judeo christian values in particular so what would...
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you measure iran's capability to launch a counterattack iran has a cup ability of launching a missile attack on israel direct or attack on israel. with a few hundred thousand. what would be the effectiveness of such an award is there accuracy of these missiles i don't know all. gone to the polls we would be worse off than we could be in one hundred ninety one when we were under iraqi missile damage was caused no one actually got killed but there's no guarantee that that is not going to be to happen we have no the arrow which we didn't have then which would be able to intercept at least some part of these attacks and the greatest damage would be as in the case of the katyusha rocket attack the economic damage to israel because under such attack everything comes to a standstill and what about arab support for an israeli strike on iran you mentioned american involvement but surely it's also needs our persistence in the form of landing lights and even feeling assistance many arab countries are very cautious of iran and. the for example saudi arabia has been urging the united states to att
you measure iran's capability to launch a counterattack iran has a cup ability of launching a missile attack on israel direct or attack on israel. with a few hundred thousand. what would be the effectiveness of such an award is there accuracy of these missiles i don't know all. gone to the polls we would be worse off than we could be in one hundred ninety one when we were under iraqi missile damage was caused no one actually got killed but there's no guarantee that that is not going to be to...
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law iran is not. or this or jordan or some other client regime of the united states they will stand firm and they will take it will pursue its rights but with regards to what i said earlier i repeat it's obvious that there's never been any evidence whatsoever that iran's nuclear program has ever been anything but peaceful and i'll decide one example that was stated before and that is the four do plants in your home therefore do plant was only built to produce enrich uranium because of the constant threat of attack on iranian installations in other words since the natanz installations were being threatened by the israelis and the americans illegally and in a you know the use of this is a form of terrorism to constantly threaten a country they built the four do plan to protect the people who work there because they're after all of their are after all human beings they have families and therefore to plant is under i.a.e.a. supervision it has cameras there that work twenty four hours a day seven days a we
law iran is not. or this or jordan or some other client regime of the united states they will stand firm and they will take it will pursue its rights but with regards to what i said earlier i repeat it's obvious that there's never been any evidence whatsoever that iran's nuclear program has ever been anything but peaceful and i'll decide one example that was stated before and that is the four do plants in your home therefore do plant was only built to produce enrich uranium because of the...
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about iran's capabilities? if you could each just gave really quick thought on that. >> i think frankly the president -- ahmadinejad has been extraordinarily marginalized. he's basically had a fight with the supreme leader over the past couple years and he's lost decisively. and not only has he lost, but i think actually the office of the presidency itself has been weakened and that the supreme leader has tried to put the presidency back in the box. i don't think that whoever is the next president of iran is likely to be a game changer if for no other reason because you don't get to run for president unless the supreme leader agrees that you're okay. and so i guess he thought mu w moussaoui was fine but afterwards not so much. i don't see the 2013 election as being a game changer. the only thing is it could do is complicate diplomacy for all the reasons that a heated moment complicates it. it allows sides to play politics with the issue instead of settling it. it's already having that effect in our country. i d
about iran's capabilities? if you could each just gave really quick thought on that. >> i think frankly the president -- ahmadinejad has been extraordinarily marginalized. he's basically had a fight with the supreme leader over the past couple years and he's lost decisively. and not only has he lost, but i think actually the office of the presidency itself has been weakened and that the supreme leader has tried to put the presidency back in the box. i don't think that whoever is the next...
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iran. there's been 16 years of diplomas circumstance as you have talked about you have said repeatedly, said it in march, i know you stayed to the army radio this morning. it is not a problem of days but also not a problem of years. now you said that first in march so i would imagine not years, plural. you think that means this will be resolved by next spring? >> well, i hope it is resolved and i hope it is resolved peacefully. the international community is putting a lot of pressure on iran and making clear that its nuclear program must stop. if it stops with sanctions, the combinations of sanctions, diplomas circumstance other pressures, i, as the prime minister of israel, will be the happiest person in the world. >> do you think that sanctions are working? i mean, i saw story today about -- i think it was 56% of iranian -- of iran's fleet, tankers, sitting off the coast with oil, full of oil, 'cause they can't sell it. it would appear that sanctions are working. >> well, they are certain
iran. there's been 16 years of diplomas circumstance as you have talked about you have said repeatedly, said it in march, i know you stayed to the army radio this morning. it is not a problem of days but also not a problem of years. now you said that first in march so i would imagine not years, plural. you think that means this will be resolved by next spring? >> well, i hope it is resolved and i hope it is resolved peacefully. the international community is putting a lot of pressure on...
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iran is not free. jews in iran have a lot to worry about. but the jewish state that iran openly calls a cancer that has to be excised from the middle east, that has to be eradicated, certainly must take seriously iran's claims to annihilate it. >> the way the talks seem to be going, u.s. negotiators, iranian negotiators, seem to be saying that the sanctions are working and that they may in fact roll back some sanctions. that's what the iranians want and there has not been a direct rebuttal to that from the other side. the really tough sanction that's are supposed to take effect this summer. what happens -- okay. >> i think it would be a big mistake to rescind the sanctions or lighten the sanctions. i think there has to be a cascade of sanctions. so far, that's the acid test. the sanctions haven't worked. how do we know that? because nothing has been stopped. what has stopped in the iranian program? >> what if they halted full enrichment to 20%, started importing that? would that be enough? >> i think what they need to do are three things. on
iran is not free. jews in iran have a lot to worry about. but the jewish state that iran openly calls a cancer that has to be excised from the middle east, that has to be eradicated, certainly must take seriously iran's claims to annihilate it. >> the way the talks seem to be going, u.s. negotiators, iranian negotiators, seem to be saying that the sanctions are working and that they may in fact roll back some sanctions. that's what the iranians want and there has not been a direct...
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they have been distributed all over in iran. so having perhaps one target, you may have three or four. you know, if you want to -- as an example. so it's not only about chrome or -- the problem, if you want really to stop them by military means, you need to step a lot of targets. so i think this answers the difference between the u.s. and israel in this respect. u.s. has much more power to do with. and this is not also anymore a surgical strike like was in iraq. or this place in syria. because they were isolated buildings. you knew exactly where you go and what you need to get. but here you have perhaps ten places which you need to eliminate in order to make sure that this doesn't take place. then surgical strike is a surgical strike. it's not a sledgehammer. but if you really want to stop the program, you should use sledgehammer. elimination of a couple of places. you only buy time. but actually, israel's community use the sledgehammer. what happened in 1991, and gulf war actually stopped nuclear program, and you now see the hi
they have been distributed all over in iran. so having perhaps one target, you may have three or four. you know, if you want to -- as an example. so it's not only about chrome or -- the problem, if you want really to stop them by military means, you need to step a lot of targets. so i think this answers the difference between the u.s. and israel in this respect. u.s. has much more power to do with. and this is not also anymore a surgical strike like was in iraq. or this place in syria. because...
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policy iran's isolation or the problem with iran trumps the need to get iran to work positively in afghanistan? if i could get brief answers and then we'll open it up. >> sure. you are very right this is what pakistani policymakers essentially are obsessed with or look at very seriously. they also have the whole civil war sken cenario in front of th. but i would say there are a couple of points.
policy iran's isolation or the problem with iran trumps the need to get iran to work positively in afghanistan? if i could get brief answers and then we'll open it up. >> sure. you are very right this is what pakistani policymakers essentially are obsessed with or look at very seriously. they also have the whole civil war sken cenario in front of th. but i would say there are a couple of points.
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not to attack iran right now we see iran through one lens in one way we see this as a unchanging theocracy that is very of the american anti western incurable if you will know the words it's fatally stricken with this theocratic disease of religious fanaticism i don't i think it will change and i think if we can back away from this iran will evolve differently over the next ten years and we don't have to have this hostile relationship or confrontation that would be i mean are you that's one of my organs see another was don't look at it i need to change for the better you look at the future look at what is driving iran what is what is iran's principal interest internal modernization economic development what do its people want israel to focus of everyone's hatred in iran absolutely not most iranians could care less about it in fact most iranians are not very friendly towards arabs so the bottom line is why are we doing what we're doing we're looking at things as though they will not change my point is that nixon had the foresight to understand china was at the beginning of a long period of
not to attack iran right now we see iran through one lens in one way we see this as a unchanging theocracy that is very of the american anti western incurable if you will know the words it's fatally stricken with this theocratic disease of religious fanaticism i don't i think it will change and i think if we can back away from this iran will evolve differently over the next ten years and we don't have to have this hostile relationship or confrontation that would be i mean are you that's one of...
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that iran. should have access to peaceful nuclear power if it wishes we've offered to replace the fuel in its medical reactors into iran. so it's not an issue it was there whether a country like iran or any other country if it wishes to have peaceful use of nuclear power there ought to be a way with that can be provided having said that iran has also. required rather openly what it would do if it became a nuclear power now these are be one of its neighbors in the region. those words have to be listened through a little bit and they have to if iran seriously wants to. play according to the game but play according to rules that all of us play by and sign the documents that . guarantee a certain behavior. there's no reason. iran could not have nuclear power and nuclear power for peaceful use so you know to me the. pressure and the responsibility is not upon russia or the united states to to. make iran do anything but it doesn't want to do it's up to iran to say you know. we want to be like north ko
that iran. should have access to peaceful nuclear power if it wishes we've offered to replace the fuel in its medical reactors into iran. so it's not an issue it was there whether a country like iran or any other country if it wishes to have peaceful use of nuclear power there ought to be a way with that can be provided having said that iran has also. required rather openly what it would do if it became a nuclear power now these are be one of its neighbors in the region. those words have to be...
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iran is not free. jews in iran have a lot to worry about. but the jewish state that iran openly calls a cancer that has to be excised from the united states, the enslaves will be annihilated. >> the negotiators seem to be saying that the sanctions are working and that they may in fact roll back some sanctions that's what the iranians want and the really tough sanctions that are to take effect this summer. okay. what do you do? >> i think it would be a big mistake to rescind or lighten the sanctions. i think there has to be a cascade of sanctions. so far, that's the acid test. the sanctions haven't worked. how do we know that? because nothing has been stopped. what has stopped in the iranian program? >> what if they halted full enrichment to 20%, started importing that. would that be enough? >> i think they need to do three things. one, stop all enriched -- >> all enrichment, even the 3% for medical? >> yes. because they say they need it for medical isotopes, so the second point is after you stop the enrichment is remove the enriched material
iran is not free. jews in iran have a lot to worry about. but the jewish state that iran openly calls a cancer that has to be excised from the united states, the enslaves will be annihilated. >> the negotiators seem to be saying that the sanctions are working and that they may in fact roll back some sanctions that's what the iranians want and the really tough sanctions that are to take effect this summer. okay. what do you do? >> i think it would be a big mistake to rescind or...
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now israel is ratcheting up its war rhetoric against iran despite certain proof that iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon and former u.s. army. both israel and america could go when it comes to dealing with iran. we're sitting down with douglas macgregor every tired army colonel who fought in the gulf war and was referred to by some officials as the best fighter the us army has got mr mccracken thank you very much for joining me good to be here president obama has put forward an ultimatum for iran either make progress with negotiators or face consequences consequences meaning war some say a strike may happen within the next few months in your opinion how realistic is that should we expect the war in summer topical question right now in washington d.c. i think the answer right at the moment is no president obama is not remotely interested in waging war against iran so let's be clear about that no one at the top of the united states military establishment is interested in waging war against iran and the intelligence community has made it abundantly clear that iran is nowhere near the
now israel is ratcheting up its war rhetoric against iran despite certain proof that iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon and former u.s. army. both israel and america could go when it comes to dealing with iran. we're sitting down with douglas macgregor every tired army colonel who fought in the gulf war and was referred to by some officials as the best fighter the us army has got mr mccracken thank you very much for joining me good to be here president obama has put forward an ultimatum...
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iran doesn't heed to these requests. and it has not heeded to the requests or the iaea board of governor, not to the requests of united nations security council. as a result of that, the authority of the two organizations is diminishing, whether you get someone who doesn't comply. and syria for example has already used this playbook in stalling in answering to some of similar questions with the iaea. so we have created a dangerous precedent. the first precedent actually to this came from north korea. it's not only the answer to the iaea questions, but providing access to the certain sites. so what is at stake is actually the credibility of the whole mpt regime. let me talk a little bit more about the military activities. actually, iaea has been accused of misusing information that comes from intelligence, it comes from third parties. it's not able to verify the vicinity of this information. i don't think it's quite true. why? first of all, i mentioned this procurement which has about according to the isis website, there
iran doesn't heed to these requests. and it has not heeded to the requests or the iaea board of governor, not to the requests of united nations security council. as a result of that, the authority of the two organizations is diminishing, whether you get someone who doesn't comply. and syria for example has already used this playbook in stalling in answering to some of similar questions with the iaea. so we have created a dangerous precedent. the first precedent actually to this came from north...
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iran. so i will turn the podium over to matt. >> thank you very much for that introduction. i was here just about a year ago talking about my last book and it was in the old auditorium. it's nice to be here in the new digs. this is really a beautiful auditori auditorium. as justin said today, we're here to talk about iran's nuclear program. there's wide agreement that iran's rapidly advancing nuclear program opposes perhaps the greatest emerging national security challenge for the united states. and deciding on how to deal with it is the most important issue in facing the united states government today. as i see it, there are only tlooe ways this issue is going to be resofled. first, we could get some kind of diplomatic settlement with iran. second, we could simply act' es to a nuclear armed iran or third, we or israel could take military action. now, clearly the diplomatic settlement would be ideal if we could get it. but i think there's very good reason to believe we can't. in fact, it's
iran. so i will turn the podium over to matt. >> thank you very much for that introduction. i was here just about a year ago talking about my last book and it was in the old auditorium. it's nice to be here in the new digs. this is really a beautiful auditori auditorium. as justin said today, we're here to talk about iran's nuclear program. there's wide agreement that iran's rapidly advancing nuclear program opposes perhaps the greatest emerging national security challenge for the united...
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he raises publications include coping with a nuclearizing iran, israel and iran, a dangerous rivalry, the next supreme leader, succession in the republic of iran, saudi rain an relations and many others. this commentaries have appeared in a varied of media including foreign policy, global security.org, international herald try bub, "new york times" and others and a frequent guest on television and radio. the final speaker is my friend and colleague justin logan, the director of foreign policy studies here at cato. he is an expert on u.s. grant strategy, international relations theory and american foreign poechl. his current research focuses on the shifting balance of power in asia and the formation of u.s. strategy under uni-polarity. his articles appear in many policy journals including foreign policy and the national interests, orvis, foreign service journal and others and appeared on many television and radio networks. with that i will get out of the way and introduce our first speaker, michael adler. michael. >> good morning, and thank you all for coming here. >> would you please
he raises publications include coping with a nuclearizing iran, israel and iran, a dangerous rivalry, the next supreme leader, succession in the republic of iran, saudi rain an relations and many others. this commentaries have appeared in a varied of media including foreign policy, global security.org, international herald try bub, "new york times" and others and a frequent guest on television and radio. the final speaker is my friend and colleague justin logan, the director of...
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i want to talk about iran. i hope you agree with me that our best peaceful diplomacy tool left to us to stop the march is the vigorous enforcement of the sanctions that we presently have, particularly the central bank of iran. is that the best tool? >> it is certainly probably the highest priority tool. we have others, but your characterization is right. >> in that context respect to the implementation of the central bank sanctions that begin to take effect tomorrow with respect to non-petroleum transactions, i have concerns about the subjective criteria. that will be used to determine whether a country has achieved significant reductions and purchases of refined petroleum. i would have preferred we had some scale, but we heard arguments why having a subjective criteria may be better. i can presume that in the absence with the security waiver under the law, all countries would be required to make reductions in the purchases in each of the 180-day period? >> yes. our expectation and direction we are giving is th
i want to talk about iran. i hope you agree with me that our best peaceful diplomacy tool left to us to stop the march is the vigorous enforcement of the sanctions that we presently have, particularly the central bank of iran. is that the best tool? >> it is certainly probably the highest priority tool. we have others, but your characterization is right. >> in that context respect to the implementation of the central bank sanctions that begin to take effect tomorrow with respect to...
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finally, and most ominously, iran now has rockets that can reach israel from iran itself. they don't yet have the precision weapons that are needed to strike very specific military targets, but they could cause enormous death and destruction in cities. the united states is fully committed to israel's security. that commitment is firm and unshakeable, and will not change. to honor it, we have provided enormous financial and military support to israel, most recently in the development of an effective antimissile system. but it is won known whether that or any system could intercept a large number of missiles that could be launched in the event of an all out war. israel's very existence would then be threatened. the palestinians also face serious problems, especially the indefinite continuation of the occupation under which they do not have the dignity that comes from self governance. 1947, the united nations proposed a plan to petition -- partition the area and create two states. israel accepted it, the arabs rejected it, and the first of several wars began, all of them one
finally, and most ominously, iran now has rockets that can reach israel from iran itself. they don't yet have the precision weapons that are needed to strike very specific military targets, but they could cause enormous death and destruction in cities. the united states is fully committed to israel's security. that commitment is firm and unshakeable, and will not change. to honor it, we have provided enormous financial and military support to israel, most recently in the development of an...
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a nuclear armed iran. iran won't believe us. >> i want to respond to the gentleman in the front's point about the iranian people, i think it relates to a point that was made about the aftermath of regime change. i'm not advocating, i don't think anyone up here is advocating bombing the iranian people out of existence. i don't think you can argue the united states was bombing the libyan people or syrian people in the 1990s. iranian people support the current regime. my understanding of the iranian opposition and dicy den figures i've spoken to, there's not broad base support for the current regime. the current regime will fall at some point it's just a matter of when and i do think if the military strike, series of strikes was done so in a targeted matter, civilian casualties could be kept to a minimum. and so, there may be some initial kind of rally around the flag notion inside the country but if it was made clear this was going after the regime and regime elements and elements like others that have been
a nuclear armed iran. iran won't believe us. >> i want to respond to the gentleman in the front's point about the iranian people, i think it relates to a point that was made about the aftermath of regime change. i'm not advocating, i don't think anyone up here is advocating bombing the iranian people out of existence. i don't think you can argue the united states was bombing the libyan people or syrian people in the 1990s. iranian people support the current regime. my understanding of the...
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for israel there is no reason to attack iran because, flaum, iran will not attack them and the israel economy is booming, tourism is strong and the stock market apparently is not paying attention to the crisis because it's going higher and higher. so what do you think about these? i also would like to ask you about this crisis atmosphere, which is created. to what extent does it actually benefit both israel and iran in the sense that for israel it's the diverting attention from the palestinian issue. usually when israeli prime minister is coming to washington, he's being rebuked for west bank settlements and expansion in the west bank. this time around he got a reprieve, they only talk about iran and israeli is the underdog. the iranians at the same time -- >> that's far more questions -- >> instead of 90 barrels -- >> if we could wrap it up. we have a really long line behind you. >> iran is getting -- the price for oil san diego 90 a barrel and the world price now is $120 because of the crisis. so they are pocketing $100 million every day because of that crisis. thank you. >> thank y
for israel there is no reason to attack iran because, flaum, iran will not attack them and the israel economy is booming, tourism is strong and the stock market apparently is not paying attention to the crisis because it's going higher and higher. so what do you think about these? i also would like to ask you about this crisis atmosphere, which is created. to what extent does it actually benefit both israel and iran in the sense that for israel it's the diverting attention from the palestinian...
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support against iran. so they did not nuclearize against the state that's far more threatening for them than iran, why would they now? i'll leave it at that. >> all right. we'll throw it open to questions. same rules applies. please identify yourself. please wait for the microphone, first of all, and please ask your shortest, smartest question among the many that you no doubt have. i think the gentleman on the aisle there was first with his hand up. yes, that's you. >> dave, cato adjunct scholar. fundamental to any formulation of strategy is a connection between ends and means. your advocacy of a military strike is a means is pretty clear, but your end seems undefined. you seem to put it as creating space in the future for something to happen which doesn't seem a very concreed goal. are you going to go to war for that it should be something. what's your response to that? >> it's a good question. i think actually that the connection between ends and means is pretty clear. there are four nuclear facilities i
support against iran. so they did not nuclearize against the state that's far more threatening for them than iran, why would they now? i'll leave it at that. >> all right. we'll throw it open to questions. same rules applies. please identify yourself. please wait for the microphone, first of all, and please ask your shortest, smartest question among the many that you no doubt have. i think the gentleman on the aisle there was first with his hand up. yes, that's you. >> dave, cato...
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iran it'll be a big blow for china russia as well as look to iran as a partner if russia loses syria loses a seaport it loses a front row seat on the arab israeli conflict which was key in two thousand and eight in fighting in georgia because russia could threaten to give arms to syria and and israel which was supplying georgia with arms immediately got frightened it said ok we won't supply any more arms to georgia so russia was able to use its position in syria in order to gain a big advantage internationally to i does not want to lose i actually agree with a lot with your exam and i've got to die and i actually say one thing i want to bring up i want to bring up our more is. there please i want to bring up before we go on is that there's international law it's stake here and you know we have western capitals that say they support international law and then flaunted it for over a decade now when it comes to this part of the world this is another issue the international real international community majority of people are looking at because this is what joshua had to say who's going t
iran it'll be a big blow for china russia as well as look to iran as a partner if russia loses syria loses a seaport it loses a front row seat on the arab israeli conflict which was key in two thousand and eight in fighting in georgia because russia could threaten to give arms to syria and and israel which was supplying georgia with arms immediately got frightened it said ok we won't supply any more arms to georgia so russia was able to use its position in syria in order to gain a big advantage...
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to raise pressure on iran? or you mentioned taking the next step as far as putting more pressure on iran. can you help the committee understand what you mean by that? >> well, in the wake of the passage of 1929, which raised substantially the baseline of global sanctions against iran, we, the united states, our european partners and a number of other countries, japan, south korea, some of the gulf countries, canada, australia and others implemented additional sanctions using 1929 as a legal foundation but raising the national bar for each of these countries even higher. the cumulative effect of those decisions as well as what we have seen most recently with respect to the central bank of iran sanctions, the eu decision to embargo oil that we were discussing earlier with respect to swift has been that the global pressure on iran is mounting enormously. now, do i see an immediate prospect in the security council for a new round of sanctions on iran? i think frankly the answer to that is not immediately, no. i thi
to raise pressure on iran? or you mentioned taking the next step as far as putting more pressure on iran. can you help the committee understand what you mean by that? >> well, in the wake of the passage of 1929, which raised substantially the baseline of global sanctions against iran, we, the united states, our european partners and a number of other countries, japan, south korea, some of the gulf countries, canada, australia and others implemented additional sanctions using 1929 as a...
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difficult for you to pay up and the buffett rule then one cold joins us to discuss sanctions against iran are we forgetting history underestimating the possible global economic effects and it is stopping cyber spying weeks we're going to talk about the new effort to mobilize against cispa i'll ask what it really takes to make an internet protest a success i'll have all that more for tonight including a dose of happy hour but first take a look at the mainstream media has decided to miss. right so president obama arrived in colombia this weekend for the summit of the americas to meet with more than thirty other heads of state and thanks to an embarrassing episode of a secret service before the president got there when it's free media is going crazy . not so secret service if you pay for those and presidential the shakedown the white house just wants to go away new fallout this morning on the prostitution scandal rocking the u.s. secret service president obama has made it clear there will be a thorough and rigorous investigation into an alleged sex scandal involving the secret service and th
difficult for you to pay up and the buffett rule then one cold joins us to discuss sanctions against iran are we forgetting history underestimating the possible global economic effects and it is stopping cyber spying weeks we're going to talk about the new effort to mobilize against cispa i'll ask what it really takes to make an internet protest a success i'll have all that more for tonight including a dose of happy hour but first take a look at the mainstream media has decided to miss. right...
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after a meeting between iran and five u.n. security council members in turkey over the weekend the iranian foreign minister said today that iran is ready to solve all nuclear disputes quote quickly and easily get another round of talks about that next month and once again the possibility of an external supply of enriched uranium is being discussed by the iranian foreign minister also urged for sanctions that have been put in place by the u.s. and other western countries to be lifted so we have to take a serious look at the economic policies or you could even call the economic warfare that's being waged against iran washington seems to think that sanctions are the key to holding off israel and getting iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions but if you look back at history sanctions really just lead to the opposite joining me to discuss is juan cole teacher and writer of history at the university of michigan and author of the blog informed comment but i'm very nice to have you on the show tonight now you just wrote a piece about t
after a meeting between iran and five u.n. security council members in turkey over the weekend the iranian foreign minister said today that iran is ready to solve all nuclear disputes quote quickly and easily get another round of talks about that next month and once again the possibility of an external supply of enriched uranium is being discussed by the iranian foreign minister also urged for sanctions that have been put in place by the u.s. and other western countries to be lifted so we have...
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his iran publications include coping with nuclearizing iran, israel and iran a dangerous rivalry, the next supreme leader. saudi arabian relations since the fall of saddam. and many others. his commentaries have appeared in a variety of media including foreign policy.com. globalsecurity.org, national "herald-tribune", "new york times" and other and he is a frequent guest on television and radio. and the final speaker is my friend and colleague justin logan. he is the director of the foreign policy studies here at cato. he is an expert on u.s. grand strategy, international relations theory and american foreign policy his current research focuses on the shifting balance of power in ish asia and the formation of u.s. grand strategy under uni polarity. authored numerous studies and articles on u.s. china policy, u.s. russia policy, stable says and reconstruction operations and policy approaches towards a nuclear iran. his articles have appeared in many policy journals including foreign policy in the national interest, foreign service journal and others and he also has appeared on many tel
his iran publications include coping with nuclearizing iran, israel and iran a dangerous rivalry, the next supreme leader. saudi arabian relations since the fall of saddam. and many others. his commentaries have appeared in a variety of media including foreign policy.com. globalsecurity.org, national "herald-tribune", "new york times" and other and he is a frequent guest on television and radio. and the final speaker is my friend and colleague justin logan. he is the...
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iran wants to become the dominant power in the middle east. but given iran's history of human rights abuses, fermenting sectarian conflict and sponsorship of terrorism as a tool of state craft, the world must never allow that to happen. fortunately, preventing a dominant iran is a goal we share with virtually every other nation in the region. now, certainly, we welcome russia and china's cooperation and in facing this challenge, but the prospect of a nuclear capable iran is so unacceptable that we must be prepared to act with or without them. and we have a host of willing partners in every region of the world who share our concerns and are relying on our leadership to compel iran to abandon its ambitions. now, preferably we can succeed through coercive mean, be open to negotiations with iran, but always remember that they should not be deem add success when they only need lead to further negotiations. stronger pressures shouldn't be postponed and the expectation of our forbearance will encourage iran to act in good faith. nothing in our experi
iran wants to become the dominant power in the middle east. but given iran's history of human rights abuses, fermenting sectarian conflict and sponsorship of terrorism as a tool of state craft, the world must never allow that to happen. fortunately, preventing a dominant iran is a goal we share with virtually every other nation in the region. now, certainly, we welcome russia and china's cooperation and in facing this challenge, but the prospect of a nuclear capable iran is so unacceptable that...